Identify and interpret broad scale, synoptic and mesoscale systems
Brian LaMarre discusses Hurricane Ian and the role of impact-based, probabilistic forecasts in supporting emergency management and public safety decisions.
Hurricane Ian made landfall as an intense Category 4 hurricane on September 28, 2022, on the southwest coast of Florida in the United States, claiming 156 lives in the U.S., including 66 direct fatalities in Florida. Drowning in storm surge waters was the primary cause of death. This presentation highlights how the National Weather Service worked proactively to prepare the public through engagement with core partners in media and emergency management before, during and after the storm. Public perception, based on lived experiences from past storms impacting the region, was a factor in the overall response. Additionally, there was a lack of understanding of how small changes in track can result in significant differences in impact based on the angle of approach of a hurricane moving toward Florida's north-south oriented coastline.
Hama Hamidou explains what dust storms are and their impacts, then discusses dust monitoring and forecasting.
Dust storms are one of the major high-impact weather phenomena that affect tropical arid and semi-arid areas, with important socio-economic impacts. Even though dust storms are generated in these regions, they can affect areas far beyond their source regions, depending on the weather systems present. In this presentation, the socio-economic impacts of dust storms, conceptual models for dust forecasting, and methods used for dust monitoring are presented.
Soukaina Boughanem talks about the process of forecasting and monitoring tropical convection over Morocco.
The presentation focuses on tropical convection over Morocco, with an emphasis on its forecasting and monitoring in relation to the northward extension of the ITCZ. The main atmospheric features and the use of numerical models, satellites, radar and observations for operational monitoring are also discussed.
Have you ever wondered what an Atmospheric River is or how to recognize it in model or satellite data? The freshly released training module will assist you by guiding you step by step through the identification process.
First you will learn some basic facts on Atmospheric Rivers; how and where they are created, their typical characteristics and their appearance in satellite and model data. Step by step, you will then be guided through the identification process until you are certain that you are dealing with the phenomenon that is called an Atmospheric River.
Later stages of Atmospheric Rivers are sometimes tricky to identify as they are often merged with mid-latitude frontal systems. But here again, model fields and the timely evolution can give a precise answer whether there is an embedded AR or not.
And finally, it is well invested time going through this training module as ARs are responsible for many floods and heavy precipitation in Western Europe once they make a landfall.
The purpose of this Training Module is to provide step-by-step instructions for identifying Atmospheric Rivers.
This mini-module is part of a series of MTG mini modules produced by EUMETSAT/EUMeTrain with the aim of providing quick and useful learning experience about the new satellite products.
In this exercise, you will practise forecasting using numerical models, radar data and different MTG satellite products for severe weather.
Enter the mini-module.
Case study about the extreme precipitation event in Rijeka, Croatia on 28 September 2022. The study focuses on the special case of convective development that caused the severe event.
This study accompanies the simulator.
Vinko Šoljan talks about forecasting and nowcasting of deep moist convection, satellite products used, NWP outputs and more.
In this presentation, we will demonstrate the process of forecasting deep moist convection (DMC) at Croatia Control and how satellite products are utilized in this process. This includes large-scale analysis and diagnosis using satellite data, as well as monitoring and nowcasting existing DMC using satellite products and radar data. In DMC forecast we primarily rely on the ingredients-based methodology and NWP guidance.
Liliane Hofer speaks about prognostic service of Austria, work organization, regional weather forecast specifics such as southerly föhn winds and others.
Various phenomena, some of which are regionally specific, such as southerly föhn winds or precipitation in northern or southern congestion, make the weather forecast in Austria very challenging at times. In addition, the topographically highly structured landscape also results in quite small-scale differences, for example in inversion weather conditions. All this and special customer products are highlighted in this presentation, as well as the basic working environment of the forecasters and, of course, the satellite products used for this purpose.
Lecture slides
Katarina Katušić talks about Croatian Met Service work principles and schedules, case study and satellite products used during operational shift work.
The Weather and Marine Analysis and Forecasting Sector is a part of the Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service (DHMZ), and it is in charge of weather forecasts and warnings for the public and numerous companies. Over the years, we have gone through many challenges. Quite recently, during the lockdown, the earthquake severely damaged our headquarters, and even with those difficulties the work did not stop. We also prepare and present weather forecasts for national television. Furthermore, this presentation will cover the usage of weather satellite products in daily operational work.
Lecture slides
Jorge Ponte shows the challenges of being a forecaster, issuing warnings and discusses extreme precipitation event that affected Lisbon.
Extreme rainfall events in December 2022 caused significant losses in Lisbon, Portugal. This presentation examines these events to discuss whether it was possible (or not) to make a better forecast and issue earlier warnings. By analyzing various numerical model products from the preceding days alongside real-time monitoring data (satellite, radar, stations), the presentation will explore the operational forecaster's decision-making process during extreme weather situations.
Lecture slides
A new conceptual model on Mediterranean hurricanes - "Medicanes".
Medicanes are rare, intense and destructive warm-core cyclones occasionally generated in Mediterranean Basin.
Compared with tropical cyclones, medicanes are weaker and smaller in size, with diameters under 300 km, while the diameter of a hurricane is larger than 1000 km. Hurricanes move in general from east to west due to easterly winds, while medicanes generally (but not always) move from west to east due to the mid-latitude westerlies.
Medicanes mostly occur in the western Mediterranean and in the region extending from the Ionian Sea to the North African coast. There is strong variability from year to year without any significant trends.
Pilar Rípodas talks about the improvements that the MTG will bring in regards to NWC SAF products.
The Nowcasting SAF (NWC SAF) develops and distributes software packages to generate satellite derived products with application in nowcasting. Cloud products, precipitation products, stability product, wind product, convection products, products related to turbulence and extrapolation imagery are current products in the NWC SAF portfolio. A version of the NWC SAF software that supports the new EUMETSAT satellite MTG-I is been developed by the NWC SAF team. The first version (MTG day-1) is expected to be released early 2024. The improvements expected in the NWC SAF products in this version are presented. Some preliminary products with MTG-I data can be presented depending on the availability of data. A full exploitation of the new capabilities of MTG-I to improve the current NWC SAF products and to develop new ones will come in the following versions. The plans in this respect are presented.