Abhishek Lodh (NCMRWF) - From Observations and Coupled NWP to Impacts: Advancing Tropical Weather and Monsoon Forecasts over the Indian Subcontinent
Abhishek Lodh talks about how satellite observations, data assimilation and coupled numerical models improve forecasts of monsoons, tropical weather hazards and their impacts over the Indian subcontinent.
Accurate representation of initial conditions in NWP is critical for improving the prediction of high-impact tropical weather and monsoon systems over the Indian subcontinent. Operational developments at NCMRWF, including the assimilation of satellite-derived ASCAT soil moisture and INSAT-3D land surface temperature observations, demonstrate improved prediction of monsoon depressions, tropical cyclones, precipitation, and extreme temperatures, with enhanced forecast skill and extended predictive capability. These advances in land–atmosphere initialization strengthen operational early-warning information for weather-sensitive sectors and support better anticipation of impacts on communities, agriculture, infrastructure, and critical services.